Will 2018 dampen the fires that rage across the Middle East?
Although skepticism is understandable, there is a glimmer of change.
The
fight against the Islamic State group is mostly over, and the war in
Syria may finally be winding down. The region is transitioning from
fighting those wars to dealing with their aftermath — the destruction
and dispersal of populations they wrought and the political fallout.
Iran’s
influence has grown after its proxies were generally successful, and
even its nuclear deal with the West remains in place. In rival Saudi
Arabia, a youthful new leader is promising long-delayed modernization at
home and greater confrontation with Iran in the region. Donald Trump in the White House adds a mercurial element to an exceedingly combustible brew.
If
pessimism reigns, much can be traced to the failure of the 2010-11 Arab
Spring revolts against despotism. Instead of the democratic tsunami
many envisaged, a string of wars has followed. Libya seems doomed to
chaos and the war in Yemen is a genuine humanitarian crisis.
In
many places, the old guard remains in place. So spectacular is the
wreckage that almost no one refers to the Arab Spring without irony any
more.
Egypt, which gripped the world’s attention when
street demonstrations — and the military — toppled Hosni Mubarak seven
years ago, may be the best example of the scaled-down ambition. After
several years of mayhem it seems more stable now, the economy starting
to grow and tourism up.
Jihadi terrorism remains a
problem, though, especially in the Sinai Peninsula and against
Christians, and freedoms have been curtailed. Still, there is little
sense of foment in the streets — where protests are severely restricted —
and barring a surprise, President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi can expect to
win re-election in a few months.
Across the border in
Israel, there is more prospect for change as long-serving Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu faces corruption investigations that could lead to
his removal or early elections. Netanyahu, albeit bellicose, has been
cautious — but he also seems wedded to a ruinous status quo with the
Palestinians. He could be replaced by a greater firebrand or by the
moderate center-left, which would create new opportunities.
Here’s a look at some possible inflection points for 2018:
All quiet on the Syrian front?
Syria’s President Bashar Assad has been embattled since war
erupted in his country almost seven years ago, when his demise was
widely predicted in the early going. But it looks like he’ll survive,
for now, as the war appears to draw to a close.
Major
military operations have tapered off, with Assad in control of key areas
and the war against the Islamic State group mostly concluded with the
recapture of the cities it controlled. Bloodshed still lies ahead if
Assad tries to seize areas still under rebel control, including some
near the capital and in Idlib province to the north. But local
cease-fires brokered by Russia, Iran and Turkey have significantly
reduced the daily carnage that kept Syria in the news.
The
damage, with half the population displaced and almost a half million
killed, is huge. Tens of thousands are missing, many believed held in
government detention centers. Syrian Kurds in the north hold nearly 25
percent of the country; Turkey, Russia, the U.S., Iran and Lebanese
troops all maintain bases they are likely to keep for now.
The
fate of Assad, whose heavy-handed, decades-old family rule sparked the
rebellion, remains a toxic issue that has scuttled all diplomatic
efforts at peace. Backed by Russia and Iran, it may seem like Assad has
won the war: too many of his frustrated opponents turned to extremist
groups such as al-Qaida and IS for the United States and the West to
jump in and risk conflict with Russia. But the endgame remains open.
Promise and peril in Saudi Arabia
The monarchies of the region — from Morocco to Jordan to
the Gulf — were the least affected by the Arab Spring. Perhaps most
ossified was Saudi Arabia, a US ally and key oil power whose strict
Wahhabi interpretation of Islam is blamed by critics for abetting the
spread of jihadism worldwide.
Now change appears to be
coming, symbolized by the ubiquitous acronym MBS — the widely used
nickname for 32-year-old Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who many
expect will take over the throne from his father officially in 2018. He
has been stumping for a more moderate view of religion and is widely
credited with the recent decisions to end the highly contentious,
decades-old bans on women driving and cinemas operating.
The crown prince is also widely seen as the driving force behind the arrests of dozens of his fellow princes on corruption charges.
Few are surprised by the corruption allegations, but critics sensed a
power grab. Many of the detainees continue to fester, albeit in style,
in the luxury Riyadh hotel that has become their improbable prison.
Saudi
Arabia has also led a political and economic assault by Gulf nations on
small but scrappy Qatar, accusing it of supporting terrorism and being
too close to Iran. A series of demands, such as the closure of its
state-owned Al Jazeera television network, have been summarily rejected,
and the gambit seems mired in stalemate.
The Syria war
is, to a degree, a proxy fight between the two regional powers, with
Tehran supporting Assad and Riyadh many of the rebels. That also drove
the seemingly Saudi-inspired and ultimately abortive resignation of
Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who was seen as too easy on the
Iranian-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah, which is fighting in Syria.
In
Yemen, where the Saudis have backed the government with airstrikes
against Iran-backed Houthi rebels, many thousands of civilians have
died, the rebels still control key parts of the country and there is
starvation and cholera on a historic scale.
So great is
the antipathy toward Iran by Saudi Arabia and other Sunnis powers that
some observers think it exceeds their opposition to Zionism. In
Jerusalem, officials giddily whisper of an emerging Sunni-Israeli axis
against the Islamic Republic.
A penultimate deal?
Seemingly inspired by the high-profile failures of his
recent predecessors to coax the Israelis and Palestinians into a final
peace, Trump speaks repeatedly of the “ultimate deal”. But it is
difficult to envision even a more moderate Israeli leader meeting the
Palestinians’ terms, which include dividing or sharing Jerusalem and its
Old City, holy to three religions.
Even
if they somehow agree to share, Israel and a future Palestine will
likely need a border snaking through the city to keep peace
rejectionists apart. And the Palestinians demand recognition of at least
a theoretical “right of return” for millions of descendants of
refugees, which few Israelis contemplate. Two decades of failed
negotiations attest to the quagmire.
With this
unpromising backdrop many Palestinians are talking about ditching the
two-state strategy and demanding annexation and equal rights instead.
That would make Israel an evenly divided binational state, something its
government can be expected to resist, even as they face potential
accusations of apartheid. With Israel having already settled 600,000
Jews in the West Bank and east Jerusalem, extricating itself will be
difficult.
Some expect Trump’s team to try to forge a
partial deal instead: A Palestinian state on only some of the land they
seek, with Jerusalem and refugees left for later negotiations.
Washington may be hoping for help from Riyadh and perhaps Cairo in
pressuring the Palestinians. But that never came in the past, even with
offers on the table far more likely to entice.
A phoenix on the Tigris
The war against the Islamic State group has been
declared over after four years of savagery. The group’s epic abuses —
enslaving women, massacring whole populations, grisly killings, mass
terrorism — inspired a furious reaction that has left large parts of
Iraq in smoldering ruins. The fight by the US-led coalition was grueling
in Fallujah, Ramadi, Hawija, Tal Afar and finally, Mosul.
Whether Iraq can rebuild is a key question for 2018, for only then will
Baghdad regain the authority to govern the whole country.
The
cash-strapped government estimates $100 billion is needed nationwide —
while leaders in Mosul say that amount is needed for their city alone.
Funding is unclear, and the United States — whose coalition dropped
approximately 27,700 munitions around Mosul from October 2016 to July
2017 — seems to be washing its hands.
While
2.7 million Iraqis have returned to lands retaken from IS, more than 3
million others cannot — including some 600,000 from Mosul. Thousands of
civilians were killed. More than 70 percent of Ramadi remains damaged or
destroyed, according to authorities there.
At the heart
of the matter are the sectarian divisions that bedevil not only Iraq but
Syria, Lebanon, and other parts of the region whose borders were mostly
drawn by Europeans. The destroyed areas are largely Sunni, while the
Baghdad government is Shiite-dominated. If rebuilding efforts fail, the
Sunni areas will likely become restive again.