A SEMI-ANNUAL Pentagon report to the US Congress on the
security situation in Afghanistan has included a troubling assertion
about Pakistan-US ties. The report has warned that the US is prepared to take “unilateral steps” in areas where Pakistan differs with the US in how to address the regional militancy threat.
While
the report has also stressed the need for dialogue and cooperation with
Pakistan, the mere suggestion of unilateral military action inside
Pakistan by the US against militant targets is likely to be met with
hostility.
The presidency of Donald Trump has already
upended many diplomatic norms, while a more militarised approach against
militant threats that America perceives globally suggests a willingness
to redefine red lines in ties with other countries. Pakistan must
respond carefully to any invasive tactics that the US might attempt.
The
triangular relationship between Pakistan, Afghanistan and the US has
had both legitimate and less legitimate complaints on all sides.
With
Pakistan continuing to suffer terrorist attacks, and credible
intelligence suggesting that many of these originate in sanctuaries that
anti-Pakistan militants have found in Afghanistan, it is clear that
Pakistan itself faces a serious threat.
Meanwhile, the
repeated attempts to pin blame on Pakistan for failures of the US and
Kabul overlook a fundamental reality: eventually, there will have to be a
political settlement in Afghanistan. Threatening Pakistan with
unilateral action against militant networks that Pakistan is also
expected to help bring to the negotiating table makes little sense.
Where
intelligence is shared with Pakistan of the genesis of certain attacks
inside Afghanistan being traced back to its soil, Pakistan has for some
years expressed a willingness to act. It has never been clear why that
offer has not been taken up earnestly by Afghanistan or the US.
In
Afghanistan, the Trump administration seems destined to allow the US
military greater leeway for at least the next two years, perhaps for the
entire term of the current presidency.
There will
likely be some gains. The military surge authorised by former US
president Barack Obama was significantly larger, but the looser rules
that this administration has set could allow the much smaller US
military presence today to return the war in Afghanistan to a stalemate.
That may trigger an eventual reassessment by the Afghan
Taliban, Kabul and the US about the need to restart a dialogue process.
It is towards that end that Pakistan must keep its focus.
The
Salala incident in 2011 and an incursion by US helicopters into South
Waziristan in 2008 have already demonstrated how reckless action can
have severe implications and consequences for all sides.
